Social change and premarital fertility in Madagascar

Premarital fertility, defined as birth before first marriage, is investigated in Madagascar, using two Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 1992 and 1997. About 8 per cent of all births and 23 per cent of first births take place before marriage, despite a low underlying mean age at first marriage, estimated to be 18.6 years in the absence of a previous birth. A premarital first birth increases the chances that a woman aged less than 25 years is married, but is of little consequence after age 25. The proportion of premarital births and premarital first births and the differentials by region are robust after controlling for a variety of socioeconomic factors. Wealth is associated with lower proportions of premarital births, whereas level of education is associated with higher proportions because of later marriage. Christians have slightly more premarital births than animists, as do urban residents compared to rural residents. Inhabitants of the capital city (Antananarivo) consistently show lower premarital fertility, even after controlling for socioeconomic factors. Women living in the two regions located in the north (Antsiranana) and the east (Toamasina) show higher levels of premarital fertility. Premarital fertility bears a complex relationship with modernisation and age at marriage, the two factors being inversely related. Altogether, premarital fertility has increased over time, probably because age at first marriage has increased, which is itself associated with increasing education and low levels of contraceptive use before first marriage. This pattern exists despite a negative relationship with wealth, in a context of decreasing income. Results are discussed in the light of earlier ethnographic reports on marriage and fertility.